江淮下游平原地区降水时空变化:以江苏里下河腹部区为例  

Spatial-temporal variations of precipitation in the lower Jianghuai plain:A case study of the Inner Lixiahe Region,Jiangsu

作　　者：潘光波[1] 许有鹏[1] 丁瑾佳[1] 叶正伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期671-680,共10页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40730635;40571025);水利部公益性行业科研专项(2010042;200701024);江苏省自然科学基金(BK2006133)

摘　　要：江淮下游多为平原水网地区,地处南北方交界地带,位于我国亚热带季风气候向温带季风气候的过渡区.基于该地区的里下河腹部区17个雨量站1957-2006年的逐日降水资料,通过线性回归、滑动平均以及Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法,探讨了该地区降水随时间的变化特征;基于GIS技术,分析了该地区降水的空间分布特征和变化趋势的空间差异.结果表明:该地区降水年内变化较大,70%±的降水集中于汛期,且暴雨频繁;年降水量和汛期降水量的年际变化大,尤其以中部的安丰、兴化一带为最大;受季风进退的影响,7、8月降水量自北向南递减,致使夏季降水量与年降水量的空间分布特征相反,呈现北多南少的特点,表现为安丰、兴化、东台一带和东北部的阜宁、盐城附近多暴雨;秋季降水量有所下降,其中9月降水量显著减少;而冬季降水量呈显著上升趋势,尤其以中南部最为显著.该研究可以为该地区洪涝防治以及水资源持续利用提供参考.Located in the transitional zone of subtropical and temperate monsoon climates from southern to northern China,the lower Jianghuai plain is a typical lower region with dense water bodies.Based on the daily precipitation data of 17 rain gauging stations of the Inner Lixiahe Region in the lower Jianghuai plain from 1957 to 2006,the trends and distributions of precipitation are analyzed using linear regression,moving average method,Mann-Kendall method,and GIS.We conclude that,with frequent rainstorms,precipitation occurring during a year was uneven,70% of which occurred in the flood season.The variation of annual and flood-season precipitations was evident,with Anfeng and Xinghua in the middle of the Inner Lixiahe Region as the most significant sites.With the advance and retreat of summer monsoon,precipitation in July and August decreased from north to south,and rainstorms took place frequently in the middle and northeast,which was different from the variation trend of annual precipitation.As a result,rainstorm was quite frequent in Anfeng,Xinghua and Dongtai in the middle part of Lixiahe,and in Funing and Yancheng in the northeastern part of Lixiahe.In contrast to a reducing trend in autumn precipitation and an obvious reducing trend in September,winter precipitation increased significantly,especially in the middle and southern parts.This study can provide reference to regional flood prevention and sustainable utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：江淮下游 降水 变化趋势 空间分布 里下河 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]