经济学流派货币理论在中国的实证检验  

Empirical Test on Monetary Police about Economic School in China

作　　者：甘小军[1] 郑贞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《经济问题》2010年第12期10-13,共4页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：利用SVAR模型,经Granger因果检验、冲击反应函数、方差分解等实证检验发现:(1)中国的货币供给冲击无论长期还是短期都对实体经济没有显著影响,但对价格水平能形成永久性冲击,这表明真实商业周期理论更能够解释中国货币作用过程,因此政府旨在刺激宏观经济的货币政策很可能是无效的。(2)货币供给冲击与价格水平之间存在单向的因果关系,这为人民银行把货币供给作为控制通货膨胀的中介目标提供了理论基础。We verify that China＇s money supply have no significant impact on the real economy no matter in the short-term or in the long-term by the methods of the Granger causality test、impulse response functions and variance decomposition in a SVAR model,but it has permanent impact on price in the long run,which indicates that the real business-cycle theory can explain the role of the money supply better.It is likely to be ineffective to stimulate economics by the government monetary policy,a uni-directional causality between monetary aggregates and price make it a good intermediate target to supervise inflation by central bank.

关 键 词：SVAR模型 真实商业周期理论 新凯恩斯主义 

分 类 号：F0[经济管理—政治经济学]