后危机时代的国际油价波动与未来走势：一个多重均衡的视角  

International Oil Price Fluctuation and Future Trend in Post-crisis Era:a Perspective Based on Multiple Equilibrium Model

作　　者：陈宇峰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院 [2]现代商贸研究中心

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2010年第12期3-11,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社科应急项目(2009JYJR020);浙江省重点学科(浙江工商大学产业经济学)重点项目;浙江省属高校人文社科重点研究基地(浙江工商大学企业管理学);浙江工商大学青年人才基金(Q09-9)等经费资助

摘　　要：在对国际石油价格波动的长期和短期特征事实进行分析的基础上,本文构建了一个多重均衡视角的国际油价变动模型,同时也预测了后金融危机时代下国际油价的未来可能走势。本文认为,在未来的二十年内,国际油价的持续上涨已是一个不可逆转的趋势。而且,受到全球经济复苏的预期影响、石油资源的供需矛盾日渐突出等因素的冲击影响,国际石油均价在未来的两年内将维持在80美元至100美元区间内震荡。Based on the fluctuation characteristics of the international oil prices in the long-term and short-term, this paper establishes an international oil price model from the multiple equilibrium perspective, and analyzes and predicts the future trend of the international oil prices in the post-cri- sis era. Overall, within the next 20 years, the continuously rising of the international oil prices is an irreversible trend. Furthermore, due to the expected impact of the global economic recovery, and the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of the oil resources, the average price of the international oil will be maintained between 80 to 100 dollars per barrel during the next two years.

关 键 词：国际油价 多重均衡模型 短期波动 长期走势 

分 类 号：F746.41[经济管理—国际贸易]