CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用  

Application of failure probability of CREAM for judgement and decision-making in the cockpit

作　　者：孙瑞山[1] 王鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2010年第6期40-45,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:60979009);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(编号:2010CB734105)

摘　　要：CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。CREAM emphasizes that the performance output is not the isolated random behavior but depends on working conditions and the environment when human complete tasks in the production activities.And it has the different response behavior by affecting human＇s cognition control mode and the effect in different cognitive activities.In the cockpit,the performance output of the crew is not only the independent behavior,but also depended on its environment.Therefore,CREAM can combine with the cockpit environment to analysis the crew＇s cognitive errors.The process of judgement and decision-making in the cockpit by fight crew is a very important part.It includes questioning,debate,identify solutions,implement and feedback.The study intended to analyze the relationship and impact between these five aspects that to clarify the discussion process is a useful way to reduce the human error.The CREAM method was applied to the quantitative analysis in these five aspects.It would obtain the error probability in the judgement and decision-making and complete cognitive behavior of judgement for flight crew.It will provide a method for pilot in the cockpit that can quantify whose cognitive errors.

关 键 词：认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM) 判断与决策 人为差错 机组 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V223[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]