乌东德地区泥石流危险范围预测模型  

Prediction Model of Debris Flow Risk Range in Wudongde Region

作　　者：张晨[1] 陈剑平[1] 王清[1] 谷复光[1,2] 张文[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130026 [2]吉林建筑工程学院勘测工程学院,长春130021

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2010年第6期1365-1370,共6页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40872170);吉林大学'985'计划资助项目(105213200500007)

摘　　要：为了更加客观、准确地预测泥石流的危险范围,在前人研究经验和大量野外考察的基础上,选取多项泥石流重要影响因素,对乌东德地区上百条泥石流按照其堆积区规模分组进行多元回归分析,得到不同类型泥石流中各影响因素对堆积区形态参数的预测模型。通过不断改变步长的方式搜索适用于一个地区泥石流危险范围预测的数学模型,运用计算机搜索大量可能的数学模型,通过平均误差计算比较得到最优预测模型。将该方法和文献[3]的逐步回归分析方法一起应用到乌东德地区的实例上进行验证,预测结果显示,后者得到的误差要比本文方法计算的误差大很多,本文方法的预测误差为6.7%～9.2%,文献[3]方法的预测误差为10.5%～29.6%。Based on previous research experiences and a large number of field trips,a number of important impact factors of debris flow are selected to forecast debris flow risk range more objectively and more accurately.Hundreds of debris flows in Wudongde region classified by their accumulation areas are evaluated with multiple regression analysis and the prediction models about the morphological parameters of different types of debris flows are obtained.A new method which can search a prediction mathematical model for regional debris flow risk range by changing the steps is presented.Every possible mathematical model is searched through the computer and optimal prediction models are found by comparing average error.This method and the traditional forecasting methods are both applied as examples in Wudongde.The results show that the error calculated by the stepwise regression analysis method of literature[3] is much bigger than the error calculated by the suggested method.The former is from 10.5% to 29.6%,and the later is between 6.7% and 9.2%.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险范围 多元回归 搜索最优解 乌东德地区 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]