基于证据权法的泥石流危险度区划  

Zoning of Debris Flow Hazard Degree with Weight-of-Evidence Method

作　　者：孟凡奇[1] 李广杰[1] 秦胜伍[1] 汪茜[1] 马建全[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130026

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2010年第6期1380-1384,共5页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国土资源部地质灾害调查项目(国土资环函[2007]22号)

摘　　要：针对泥石流危险度区划方法存在不足的问题,根据泥石流形成的要素提取危险度评价因子,运用证据权法客观地筛选出评价因子和确定危险度的权重,进而优选出具有代表性的评价因子,避免了主观赋权和筛选因子的随意性;根据不同评价因子权重值的叠加来确定某一单元泥石流危险度发育程度的概率。以吉林省磐石市泥石流危险度区划为例进行验证,结果表明:中度和低度危险区内有泥石流点163个,囊括了75.81%的泥石流灾害点,符合磐石市泥石流危险度总体不高、局部地区危险度较大的实际情况。For the problem of risk degree zoning of debris flow,a new mothed of weight-of-evidence to assess the weights of factors is suggested.The procedure of this method is firstly to select risk assessment factors from elements of the formation of debris flow,and to pick up the factors using weight-of-evidence method,and to define the weight of their risk degree,and then to optimize the representative factors and avoiding casualness of subjective weight and screening factors,finally,to determine probability of debris flow risk development for a unit by summing the weight of each evaluation factor.As one verification of the method in zoning of debris flow risk degree in Panshi City of Jilin Province,the result shows that there are 163 debris flow spots in low and medium risk zones which include 75.81% of the debris flow risk spots.It is accordant with the actual situation of Panshi City that the general debris flow risk degree is not high,but some areas are higher.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险度区划 证据权法 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]