气候要素对自贡市中稻产量阶段性影响分析  

Phase Impacts Analysis of Climate Factors on Middle Rice Yield in Zigong

作　　者：杨荣国[1] 段修荣 陶生才[2] 牟鸿鹄 陈东东[3] 

机构地区：[1]自贡市气象局,四川自贡643000 [2]中国农业科学院环发所,北京100081 [3]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2010年第23期116-120,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：四川省气象局应用开发课题"气候变化对自贡市再生稻生产的影响及区划研究"(2009-13)

摘　　要：中稻生长过程中受多种气候因子的相互影响,因此描述其产量极为复杂。为了减少气候因子间的相互影响,全面描述气候要素变化对自贡市中稻产量的影响,笔者运用多要素回归积分法的差分形式,建立中稻气象产量差值模型。该模型综合描述了温度、降水、日照等气候要素对中稻产量形成的阶段性影响,并在此基础上设计了产量影响指数,用于衡量中稻生育期各气候因子对最终产量影响的程度。结果表明:各气候要素对自贡中稻产量影响最大的时段和要素为3月上旬的温度,可以造成136.7kg/hm2的产量波动;6月中旬的降水,可以造成163.7kg/hm2的产量波动;7月中旬的日照,可以造成94.4kg/hm2的产量波动。5月下旬的温度、7月上旬的降水、3月上旬的日照,也可以造成89.6～131.5kg/m2的产量波动。The growth process of middle rice is affected by many agro-climatic factors,so to describe its production is extremely complex.In order to reduce the interaction between climatic factors,quantitative description of the climatic factors on middle rice yield.The author used the differential forms of multifactor regression integral,established the prediction model of weather yield of middle rice.Comprehensive description of the model of temperature,precipitation,sunshine and other weather factors on the impact of middle rice yield,and also designed yield index,a measure of the impact of the climatic factors in growing period of middle rice on the final yield.The results showed that the largest elements of climatic change on rice yield in Zigong were temperature in early March which could cause fluctuations in the output of 136.7 kg/hm 2 ;precipitation in mid-June which can cause fluctuations in the output of 163.7 kg/hm 2 ;sunshine in mid-July which could cause fluctuations in the output of 94.4 kg/hm 2.The temperature in late May,the precipitation in early July and the sunshine in early March could cause fluctuations in the output between 89.6 kg/m 2 and 131.5 kg/m 2.

关 键 词：多要素 回归积分 中稻 气象产量 自贡 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]