区域作物旱灾产量和经济损失定量估算——以唐山地区为例  

Quantitative Estimation on Drought Yield and Economic Loss of the Regional Crop——Take Tangshan as the Example

作　　者：龚宇[1] 张红红[2] 

机构地区：[1]唐山市气象局,河北唐山063000 [2]唐山市农业局,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2010年第23期375-379,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：唐山市科技发展计划项目(08120205A)(09120202A)

摘　　要：以1991—2006年唐山地区夏粮作物旱灾面积为基础,从产量损失和经济损失两方面对旱灾损失进行了估算。结果显示:1991—2006年夏粮因旱累计减产17.99×108kg,平均每年减产1.12×108kg;产量损失最大年份为1999年(减产2.2×108kg),产量损失最小年份为2006年(减产0.2×108kg);按1990年不变价格计算,累计经济损失15.3×108元,平均每年损失0.96×108元。按当年价格计算,累计经济损失19.6×108元,平均每年损失1.2×108元;(3)减产利润损失最大年份为1995年(利润损失为0.68×108元),利润损失最小年份为2000年(利润损失为-178.4×104元)。不变价格和当年价格计算的经济损失以及产量损失与利润损失间的非一致性,对农业保险政策的制定具有一定的借鉴作用。Drought loss was estimated about the yield losses and economic losses,based on the drought area of summer crops in Tangshan from 1991 to 2006.The results showed that：The total grain reduction of summer grain crops was 17.99×10 8 kg from 1991 to 2006,the average annual cut was 1.12×10 8 kg;Maximum Year of yield loss was 1999 （The cut was 2.2×10 8 kg）,Minimum Year of yield losses was 2006 （The cut was 0.2×10 8 kg）.According to the constant price of 1990,the total economic loss was 15.3×10 8 yuan,the average annual loss was 0.96×10 8 yuan.According to the current price,the total economic loss was 19.6×10 8 yuan,the average annual loss was 1.2 × 10 8 yuan.Maximum Year of profit loss was 1995 （The profit loss was 0.68 × 10 8 yuan）,Minimum Year of profit loss was 2000 （The profit loss was-178.4×10 4 yuan）.Economic losses and yield loss according to the constant and current prices was non-consistency relative to profits loss,which has a certain reference for the development of agricultural insurance policy.

关 键 词：旱灾 产量损失 经济损失 估算 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]