长江上游径流变化及其对三峡工程的影响研究  

Analysis of runoff variation in the upper Yangtze River and its impact on the Three Gorges Project

作　　者：张远东[1] 魏加华[2] 

机构地区：[1]水利部水资源管理中心,北京100053 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《地学前缘》2010年第6期263-270,共8页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B03)

摘　　要：长江上游1881—2006年径流数据分析结果表明,宜昌站1990年之后的径流量比1990年之前明显降低,其中9、10两个月份的降幅最为显著。究其原因,主要是上游地区水资源开发利用和气候变化等因素所致。水资源开发利用的分析和预测研究结果表明:1998—2006年间,上游地区的年用水量平均以6亿m3/a的速度增长;随着上游地区未来用水量的增加、许多水利水电工程的开发建设以及调水工程的实施,三峡水库的来水量及径流过程将发生进一步变化,进而可能对三峡水库未来汛后蓄水、枯水期通航、发电等产生一定的影响,尤其是枯水年份。梯级优化调度模型评价结果表明,上游水资源开发利用的增加,将对三峡电站的发电效益产生显著影响。On the basis of monitoring data series from 1881 to 2006,the variation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was analyzed.The result shows that the average annual runoff after 1990 is obviously higher than that before 1990.The most drastic decline of monthly runoff occurred in September and October.The main reasons are the increase in water consumption and the climate changes.According to the analysis and the prediction results of water resources development,it can be known that the average annual water consumption increased by 0.6 billion from 1998 to 2004.The prediction result also indicates that,owing to the increase of water consumption in the near future,the construction of many hydraulic and hydropower projects,and the implementation of inter-basin water transfer projects,the annual runoff of and the monthly inflow into the Three Gorges Reservoir will change notably.These changes may exert considerable impact on water storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir,power generation,navigation and so on in flood recession period,especially in drought years.Model simulations show that the increasing development of water resources will exert considerable influence on the power generation of the Three Gorges Power Plant.

关 键 词：水资源 径流 长江流域上游 三峡电站 发电 

分 类 号：P641.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]