社会技术方法在减少自然灾害损失中的应用  

Using Social-technological Approaches to Reduce Loss from Natural Disasters

作　　者：刘天卓[1] 马利军[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学党政办公室,合肥230026 [2]深圳大学管理学院,广东深圳518060 [3]香港中文大学系统工程与工程管理系

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第6期49-52,共4页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：介绍了社会科学中三种工具在应对自然灾害时制定理性、整体的防御措施过程中不同阶段的具体应用。文章采用社会判断理论来确定安全指标;然后通过泰勒罗素图选择安全指标的合适阀值;通过系统动力学模型模拟对意外事件做出反应且进行调整的政策环境;最后将这三种工具应用于在面对即将来临的冰冻自然灾害时是否需要转移的决策过程,并分析其应用于其他自然灾害的决策过程的可能性。The applications of three social science tools in dealing with natural disasters are introduced to provide rational and whole support in different phases.This paper first creates safety indexes with social judgment theory,then chooses safety index threshold with Taylor-Russell diagram,and finally simulates the policy execution with system dynamics models.The three tools are also applied to deciding whether a transferring is necessary when faced with the icing weather.The possibility to reduce loss from other natural disasters by the applications of the tools is analyzed as well.

关 键 词：社会判断理论 泰勒罗素图 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]