2050年前南水北调中线工程水源区地表径流的变化趋势  

Surface Runoff Changes in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer Before 2050

作　　者：张利平[1,2] 胡志芳[3] 秦琳琳[1] 曾思栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074 [3]北京市海淀区水务局,北京100094

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2010年第6期391-397,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428406);国家自然科学基金项目(40730632;50879061)

摘　　要：以南水北调中线工程水源区为研究流域,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了1961—2000年的水文气象要素变化特征;基于数字高程模型、土地利用和土壤类型等资料,研究了SWAT模型在研究流域的适用性;根据IPCC第四次评估报告多模式结果,分析了IPCC SRES A2和A1B情景下2011—2050年的降水、气温、径流的响应过程。结果表明:1961—2000年南水北调中线工程水源区降水量无显著变化趋势,气温呈缓慢上升趋势,径流量呈缓慢减少趋势。与基准期(1961—1990年)相比,未来40年A2和A1B两种气候情景下水源区降水量、气温和径流量都呈现出增加趋势,A2情景下增加趋势明显,但径流量增幅小于降水量的增幅,这可能与蒸发量的增加有关。未来气候变化对南水北调中线工程水源区径流变化影响不大,总体有利于南水北调中线工程的调水。Linear regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were first used to analyze the change characteristics of the hydrological and meteorological elements in the water source area（catchment） of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer;then a distributed hydrological SWAT model was developed based on a digital elevation model and the land use and soil type information,and its applicability in the catchment was also verified.Finally,the precipitation,temperature and runoff response processes were analyzed based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report multi-mode ensembles under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios（SRES A2 and A1B） in 2011-2050.The analysis results show that precipitation in the catchment had no trend,temperature rose slowly,and surface runoff decreased slowly during 1961-2000.Compared with the baseline period,precipitation,temperature and runoff in the catchment in future 40 years will all increase under the A2 and A1B scenarios,especially under the A2 scenario,but the increment amplitude of runoff will be less than that of precipitation,this may be associated with the increase in evaporation.Future climate change will have a little influence on the runoff of the water source area,and thus will generally be favorable to the South to North Water Transfer Project.

关 键 词：气候变化 SWAT模型 地表径流 南水北调中线工程 水源区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343