浦江县规模化农业生产的非线性分析  

Non-linear Analysis of the Scale of Agricultural Production in Pujiang County

作　　者：方斌[1] 丁毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210046

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第12期1584-1589,共6页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971105);江苏省社会科学基金项目(08CSJ009);江苏省软科学基金项目(BR2008057)

摘　　要：本文以浙江省浦江县农作物种植的现状规模为基础,以农户农业生产调查和统计年鉴为样本数据,以规模农业与资金投入的非线性动力学模型为工具,构建浦江县农业种植的最佳稳定性参数,并根据浦江县在全省所处的经济地位及其区域优势,认为该地区完全具有规模经营的可能性和必要性。同时,利用该模型得出在其粮食自给率达到80%以上时,其整体经济收益与粮食自给率并不呈完全负相关,可以通过对其水稻、蔬菜和以葡萄为代表的水果的种植规模进行调整,实现经济效益的稳定增长。模拟结果还显示,在粮食自给率达到85%时,水稻、蔬菜、葡萄理论最优种植面积为13502 hm2、1570 hm2、628 hm2。Based on the present crop growing area in Pujiang County,taking the investigations of the farmers in agricultural production and the statistical yearbooks as the sources of sample data,by means of the non-linear dynamic model of large extent agriculture and capital investment,the optimum cropping stability parameters of Pujiang are determined.In accordance with Pujiang County＇s economic status in Zhejiang province and its regional advantages,we consider that cropping in this county has the possibility and necessity of the large extent operation.At the same time,it is found by using the model that when food self-sufficiency rate is over 80%,the overall economic benefits and food self-sufficiency rate do not have an entirely negative correlation.By adjusting the areas of rice,vegetables and fruits,steady growth of economic benefits can be achieved.The simulation results also showed that when the food self-sufficiency rate is 85%,the theoretical optimum growing areas of rice,vegetables and grapes separately are 13502 ha,1570 ha and 628 ha,respectively.

关 键 词：规模化 农业生产 非线性分析 资源优化 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]