基于人工社会模型的退田还湖生态补偿机制实例研究  

A Case Study of the Effects of Wetland Restoration Policy with an Artificial Society Model

作　　者：潘理虎[1,2] 黄河清[1] 姜鲁光[1] 甄霖[1] 

机构地区：[1]资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]太原科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,太原030024

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2010年第12期2007-2017,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC08B06);国家自然科学基金项目(40901285)

摘　　要：基于补偿者和受偿者意愿的研究方法是建立切实可行的生态补偿机制的有效手段。为探讨在我国许多地区开展退田还湖生态补偿政策的有效实施机制,减少洪涝灾害与生态环境退化负面效应,研究构建了基于农户、政府和企业三类主体及其相互作用的生态补偿模型,并重点分析生态补偿标准、洪灾风险、生态环境保护、劳动力本地转移政策等因素对农户主体土地利用决策的影响。以鄱阳湖区莲湖乡为实例,以农户和企业从事生产活动的行为特征和政府宏观调控方式为基本准则,利用构建的多主体模型模拟了不同补偿机制下退田还湖政策可能产生的土地利用长期效应。结果表明,政府给予农户的经济补偿可以使农户自愿实施退田,但在不同情景下,政府实施退田还湖的代价和达到预期目标的时限差距显著。企业参与不仅能减轻政府的经济负担,同时也有利于剩余农村劳动力的转移。政府发展壮大当地经济,提高农业劳动力向非农产业转移的速度和质量,均有助于推进退田还湖政策的有效实施。The analytical approach based on the willingness of compensators and acceptors provides an efficient tool for studying eco-compensation mechanism.By using an artificial society model of land use change,this study takes into account of the roles of a governmental agent and enterprise agents,as well as several factors such as flood risk,ecosystem conservation and labor transfer policy.Taking a township in the Poyang Lake region of Jiangxi Province as a typical case where wetland restoration policy has been implemented since 1998,this study performs a detailed simulation of the decision-making process of farmers,enterprises and government agents under different social,economic and policy conditions.Some useful emerged phenomena and patterns can be found from micro to macro levels in the evolutionary process of the artificial society model.It is demonstrated that if the government gives farmers a certain amount of economic compensation,the farmers will voluntarily restore their farmland into wetland.The costs of compensation and the time for finishing the task of wetland restoration are different under different conditions,and the mechanism of enterprises’ participation is beneficial for both the government and farmers.Furthermore,it is shown that developing local economy and enterprises and promoting shifting agricultural labor force to non-agricultural industries all are positive mechanisms for effectively implementing the policy of wetland restoration.Finally,it is demonstrated that artificial society model provides an effective approach for understanding the complex microscopic interactions between compensators and acceptors in the process of wetland restoration.

关 键 词：人工社会 土地利用 洪水风险 农户行为 基于主体建模 生态补偿 退田还湖 

分 类 号：X-01[环境科学与工程]