从演化的角度评价北京市经济系统可持续发展趋势  

Quantifying the trend of economic sustainability: take Beijing as a case study

作　　者：黄茄莉[1] 徐中民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点试验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态学报》2010年第24期7038-7044,共7页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB2-04-04);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(二期)(KZCX2-XB2-09)

摘　　要：评价系统可持续性是可持续相关学科讨论的热点问题。从演化的角度评价系统可持续发展趋势是可持续评价的新视角。以热力学、信息论和网络分析等为基础解析系统结构,发现系统演化的能力由两个因素组成:上升性和恢复力。上升性或恢复力过高的系统都不可持续,只有当上升性和恢复力达到一定的平衡状态,系统才能实现可持续发展。利用该演化模型,评价了北京市经济系统1985—2005年可持续发展趋势。结果表明:1985—1987,1993—2002年间系统向最优可持续点靠近;1988—1992,2003—2005年间系统远离最优可持续点。通过分析北京市2005年一阶路径对上升性的边际贡献,得出使系统更可持续的途径是强化对上升性边际贡献大的路径。Quantitative measure of sustainability is a hot topic in the fields of sustainable development,economics,ecology and relative disciplines.An evolution model put forward by Ulanowicz is introduced here to evaluate the trend of economic sustainability.The model,which is based on thermodynamic,network analysis,information theory and researches on real-life ecosystems,could measure sustainability of any complex,matter/energy flow system.It says that the capacity for a system to undergo evolutionary change or self-organization consists of two factors： 1） ascendency： the network′s capacity to perform in a sufficiently organized and efficient manner as to maintain its integrity over time;and 2） resilience： its reserve of flexible fall-back positions and diversity of actions that can be used to meet the exigencies of novel disturbances and the novelty needed for on-going development and evolution.These two factors are complementary with respect to diversity and connectivity in the network.A system′s resilience is enhanced by more diversity and connectivity,while ascendency is increased by less diversity and connectivity.In other words,too much ascendency（resilience） means too little resilience（ascendency）.The key point is that system′s sustainability is decided by the balance between ascendency and resilience.A System with too little ascendency has neither the extent of activity nor the internal organization needed to survive.Conversely,systems with too much ascendency appear brittle in the face of novel disturbances.In one word,system′s sustainability is depending on the tradeoff between ascendency and resilience.In this paper,the trend of economic sustainability in Beijing from 1985 to 2005 was evaluated.Firstly,based on I-O table cash flows among six fundamental sectors of Beijing economy were outlined： agriculture;industry;construction;transportation,post and telecommunication;commerce and catering trade;other services.Secondly,the value of ascendency/development capacity（denoted as a）

关 键 词：可持续发展 系统演化 上升性 恢复力 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]