淮北平原降水时空变化规律研究  

Research on Temporal and Spatial Variation of Precipitation in Huaibei Plain

作　　者：王振龙[1] 孙乐强[2] 郝振纯[2] 陈玺[2] 钱筱暄[2] 无 

机构地区：[1]安徽省水利水资源重点实验室,安徽省·水利部淮委水利科学研究院,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《水文》2010年第6期78-84,92,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：水利部公益项目(200901026);水利部公益项目(200801068)

摘　　要：基于五道沟实验站1952年以来和杨楼实验流域1960年以来降水资料，结合皖苏两省淮北地区51个水文站雨量资料，采用Mann—Kandell检测法和小波分析方法，系统分析了降水时空分布特征。结果表明．五道沟实验站1952年以来实测年降水量大致经历了先减少后增多的过程，无明显突变点；Morlet小波函数分析年降水量最发育的时间尺度是a=45和a=8-10，汛期降水量是a=45左右和a=5—13，非汛期的是a=10、20和a≤5；在Mexcianhat小波函数下检测出的时间尺度大约是Morlet下的1／3。杨楼实验流域年降水量和汛期降水量的突变点分别是1965年和1964年；Morlet小波函数杨楼流域年降水量变化最明显时间尺度是a=45、20，汛期为a=40、15～20和10，非汛期为a=25和10左右；Mexcianhat下的时间尺度亦约为Morlet下的1／3。预计杨楼年降水量和汛期在短期内会增加，而非汛期会减少。整个淮北平原降水在空间上自东南向西北减少，在时间上呈现20世纪80年代之前减少、90年代之后增加趋势明显。The temporal and spatial variation of precipitation in Huaibei Plain was analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis, with the precipitation data of Wudaogou station since 1952 and Yanglou watershed since 1960, and the concerned data from other 59 stations. The results show that there is a decrease-to-increase process of annual precipitation at the Wudaogou station, and a distinct abrupt change point of annual precipitation can be found for the Yanglou watershed. By using Morlet wavelet transform, it is found that the annual precipitation exhibits the most intense activities （or variance） in both periods of 45 years and 8-10 years. The flood season corresponds to the most intense activities for the 45 year period and 5-13 year period, but drought season exhibits more activities in the periods of 10 years, 20 years and less than 5 years. Dominating active scales in Yanglou are a-=45 and 20 in annual, and a=40, 15-20 and 10 in flood season, and a=25 and 10 in drought season. The results from Mexh wavelet transform are about one third of those from Morlet. Space analysis of the Huaibei Plain indicates that the annual precipitation descends from southeast to northwest, and a significant high value area in east Suzhou for terrain influence. A decrease-to-increase rule of the annual precipitation can also be detected in the whole plain.

关 键 词：淮北平原 降水 五道沟 MannKendall 小波分析 

分 类 号：P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]