基本养老保险替代率下降机理与政策意义  

The Mechanism of the Falling Replacement Rate of the Basic Old Age Insurance and the Meaning of the Policy

作　　者：李珍[1] 王海东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口与经济》2010年第6期59-65,共7页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(08BJY158);2010年度中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金(22396043)

摘　　要：本文通过定量分析认为我国基本养老保险替代率下降有其制度内生性,并且随着"中人"比重的提高,这种内生性的影响将加大。有限的养老金调整虽可一定程度上缓解,但不能阻止替代率的下滑。提出了完善现行制度的计发办法,建立规范的养老金调整机制,不急于追求统一制度而将其他群体简单纳入我国基本养老保险的对策建议。By quantitative analyzing,we can see the endogeneity of the falling replacement rate,and as the proportion of the medial retire age increases,this endogeneity will give overwhelming impaction.Now,some limited adjusting on pension can only alleviate but not prevent the replacement rate from decreasing.This paper makes some policy suggestions,which includes perfecting the benefit regulations,establishing long term principle of pension adjusting,not mandating other cohorts to take part in this basic old age plan in haste to achieve the goal of unification.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 替代率 下降机理 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]