一颗印沟泥石流评价及震后预测  

Evaluation and Prediction After Earthquake of the Yikeyin Debris Flow

作　　者：冯文凯[1] 杜杰[2] 石豫川[1] 陈倩[3] 魏昌利[3] 李长顺[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都610059 [2]中国石化西南油气分公司工程技术研究院,四川德阳618000 [3]四川省地质调查院水工环中心,成都610031

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2010年第6期68-73,77,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40802073);"科技减灾;重建家园"专项基金项目(DZJK-0811);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2008CB425801)

摘　　要：一颗印泥石流沟位于四川省西北部理县境内,具有典型泥石流沟谷特征,历史上曾经暴发过大型泥石流。＂5.12＂汶川地震在沟谷中形成了丰富的松散固体物源,同时导致沟谷流通区中出现多处堵塞,初步推测震后10~20a将处于泥石流活跃期。通过野外考察及遥感影像数据,获得地震前后沟谷的流域特征信息,对比分析地震前后沟谷内物源分布情况及稳定状况后,得出地震后沟谷内不稳定物源量增多,同时受震后堰塞影响,泥石流活动强度增大,泥石流峰值流量成倍增长等结论,这些将为合理评价地震后泥石流发展趋势,在灾后重建过程中为泥石流的预测、预报及防治工作提供参考。Yikeyin valley is located in Li County of northwest Sichuan province,which has the typical characteristics of debris flow,and had historically broken out large-scale debris flow.＇5·12＇ Wenchuan earthquake induced a mass of secondary mountainous disasters such as collapse,landslide and at the same time lead to appear a number of jams in the circulation area,we preliminary estimated that will make the debris flow ravines be active in 10~20 years after earthquake.Through field study and remote sensing image data,we obtained the basic characteristics of the valley basin before and after the earthquake,then compared with the source on the distribution and stability in the valley before and after the earthquake,we made a series of conclusion,such as： unstable source increases,and also because of Jam activity intensity increases,peak flow increase exponentially after the earthquake,on this basis we could got a reasonable evaluation of the development trend of the debris flow after the earthquake,additionally in the post-disaster reconstruction process,which could provide the reference for the debris flow in predicting,forecasting and prevention and control work.

关 键 词：一颗印沟 形成机制 汶川地震 堰塞 震后预测 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]