湖北省1957-2009年降水时空变化特征分析  

Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Precipitaiotn During 1957-2009 in Hubei Province

作　　者：蔡道明[1] 鄢铁平[2] 廖炜[2] 熊安元[3] 吴茜[1] 吴宜进[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉430079 [2]湖北省水土保持监测中心,武汉430069 [3]国家气象信息中心气象资料室,北京100081

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2010年第6期237-241,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：科技部"气象科学数据共享中心"(2005DKA31700)项目02课题"国家级气象科学数据资源建设";湖北省水土保持监测中心委托项目:三峡库区数据库建设及其水土保持系统评估

摘　　要：利用湖北省21个气象站1957-2009年的逐日降水资料,采用EOF、REOF和小波分析对湖北省年降水的空间分布和周期特征进行初步研究。研究结果表明:EOF分析得到的前3个典型场可以很好的反映湖北降水空间分布的特征,即具有整体一致、南北相反及中部和周围地区相反。REOF分析得到的前6个空间模态可以较好地代表湖北年降水的6个异常敏感区,分别为鄂西北区、鄂北区、鄂东北区、鄂东南区、鄂中南区、鄂西南区。利用复Morlet小波函数对湖北年降水的周期性进行研究,表明湖北年降水存在着明显的3 a、7 a、14 a的特征时间尺度和周期性振荡;从大的周期转变来看,今后一段时间内,湖北省的年降水量会逐年减少,之后可能进入一个相对干旱时期。Based on annual precipitation data over 21 stations during 1957-2009 in Hubei province,the spatial-temporal characteristics are studied by applying the methods of EOF,REOF and wavelet analysis.The most typical pattern of annual precipitation is the dry-wet consistency.Other typical patterns show the dry-wet difference.For example,it is wet（or dry） in north and dry（or wet） in south,wet（or dry） in center and dry（or wet） in the surrounding area,wet（or dry） in northeast and dry（or wet） in the southwest.The first six rotated loading vector fields represent six principal precipitation anomaly areas： Northwest Hubei,North Hubei,Northeast Hubei,Southeast Hubei,Midsouth Hubei,Southwest Hubei.By using the wavelet analysis on the periodicity and the mutation of precipitation during the rainy season in Hu＇＇nan,we found that there were 3-year,7-year and 14-year time scales and main periods of precipitation during the rainy season,and the precipitation during the rainy season in Hubei may will decrease gradually and switch to a dry period in the near future.

关 键 词：湖北省 年降水 EOF REOF 小波分析 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]