安全生产事故的时间特征分析  

The Time Trend Analysis of The Accidents in Work Safety

作　　者：刘卓军[1] 柳刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100190

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第22期147-155,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题<消费品质量安全影响因子研究及标准研制>(2006BAK04A23)

摘　　要：基于我国安全生产事故快报数据,采用季节指数法对近年安全生产事故现状给出时间特征分析,确定出安全生产事故高发时间段.同时,给出总体的和死亡1人、3人以及4人的安全生产事故每年在每个时段平均事故总起数的概率分布模型.分析方法和结果有助于国家安全生产事故预防、控制和应对的监管工作.Based on the data query system of accidents in work provided by the State Administration of Work Safety,we explore the time characteristics of accidents of work safety.To begin with,we averagely divide 24 hours a day into twenty-four time interval segments,then thoroughly analyze the situation of safety accidents at each time interval from the perspective of month and year（accidents in work safety are classified by the number of death）.The results indicate that seven interval segments are focused on the future monitoring.Moreover,we also give probability distribution model to the accidents of work safety.We hope this will not only raise people＇s safety awareness but also benefit the Administration when they formulate appropriate early warnings and control measures through the analysis.

关 键 词：安全生产 时间特征 概率分布 正态分布 

分 类 号：X928.0[环境科学与工程—安全科学]