应用季节移动平均比率法预测细菌性痢疾发病人数  

Prediction of Reported Number of Bacillary Dysentery Cases by Moving Seasonal Mean Ratio Method

作　　者：黄德生[1] 单连峰[1] 沈铁峰[2] 关鹏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室,辽宁沈阳110001 [2]辽宁省葫芦岛市疾病预防控制中心 [3]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2010年第11期2135-2137,共3页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073175)

摘　　要：目的探讨葫芦岛市细菌性痢疾发病人数的变动规律并进行外推预测。方法收集辽宁省葫芦岛市1990-2009年的逐月和逐年细菌性痢疾疫情资料。首先应用von Neumann秩趋势游程检验判定年发病人数是否存在随年代变动的长期趋势,然后利用移动平均比率法进行季节趋势拟合分析及外推预测。结果趋势游程检验提示发病人数存在下降趋势。移动平均比率法中,指数模型决定系数R2为0.895,具有统计学意义。结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势,预测效果较好。Objective To explore the variation of reported cases of bacillary dysentery（BD） in Huludao and to perform extrapolation forecast. Methods The data of BD from 1990 to 2009 were provided by Huludao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.First,trend runs test was used to analyze the secular trend of BD.Then,moving seasonal mean ratio method was adopted to fit seasonal variation and perform extrapolation forecast. Results The descending tendency was found by runs test and determination coefficient（R2） of moving seasonal mean ratio method was 0.895,with statistical significance. Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular,seasonal,cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.

关 键 词：趋势游程检验 季节移动平均比率法 预测 细菌性痢疾 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]