国际油价冲击对人民币实际汇率传导及其机制研究  

A Study on the Transmission Mechanism of International Oil Price Shocks on RMB＇s Real Exchange Rate

作　　者：干杏娣[1] 刘凌[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学,上海200433 [2]上海电子信息职业技术学院,上海201411

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第12期21-25,共5页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文通过实证研究证明了国际油价冲击对人民币兑美元实际汇率存在传导效应,该传导效应主要通过贸易机制和物价机制发挥作用。在同样的国际油价冲击下,中国进口额的反应比出口额稍大;但是中国出口额对人民币实际汇率的影响比进口额对人民币实际汇率的影响大;美国通胀水平反应迅速,短期内上涨幅度比中国通胀水平多,冲击发生一段时间后,中国通胀水平的变化比美国通胀水平大;在贸易机制和物价传导机制作用下,国际油价冲击对实际汇率的传导效果是先贬值后升值。The paper conducts empirical analysis to prove the existence of transmission effect of international oil price shocks on RMB＇s real exchange rate.The transmission is through trade and price mechanisms.The volume of China＇s import is affected a little bit deeper than that of the export,while the export has much bigger influence on RMB＇s real exchange rate than the import.In the short term,the inflation rate in U.S.rises much more than that in China.Yet in the long run,the inflation rate in China climbs much more than that in U.S.Through trade and price mechanisms,the international oil price shocks will cause RMB＇s real exchange rate to depreciate at first,then to appreciate.

关 键 词：国际油价冲击 人民币实际汇率 传导机制 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]