雷达定量降水估算在水文模式汛期洪水预报中的应用试验  

Application of Radar QPE to Flood Forecast in Flood Season Hydrological Model

作　　者：彭涛[1,2] 宋星原[2] 殷志远[1] 沈铁元[1] 李武阶[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《气象》2010年第12期50-55,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50879061);湖北省科技攻关计划(2007AA301B57);公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY200806002);武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点试验室开放基金(2007B033);武汉暴雨研究所基本科研业务专项课题(0811;1013)共同资助

摘　　要：通过雷达测雨技术获得高时空分辨率的降雨信息,作为水文模型的输入,用以提高水文预报的精度。文章以湖北省白莲河流域为例,利用分组Z-I关系转化雷达反射率为雨强,运用地面雨量站网实测雨量对其进行校准,将不同方法估算得到的雨量结果输入新安江模型进行洪水预报测试,结果表明未校准雷达估算降雨量直接输入水文模型,其结果是不理想的;利用校准后的雷达估算降雨量进行洪水预报,精度得到了很大提高。The radar quantitative precipitation estimation（QPE） technology is applied to gain the high resolution rainfall information at time and space scales,and the latter is taken as the input of hydroiogical model to improve the precision of flood forecast.The paper takes the Bailianhe Basin as research area,and applies the grouping relationship of Z and I to transform the radar reflectivity into the precipitation,and then uses the Kalman filtering method to adjust the precipitation transformed from radar data using the precipitation detected by rain gauge as the criterion.And then,we input different precipitation data into the Xinanjiang model to make the flood forecast test.The results show that if the radar QPE without revi- sion is taken as the input of hydroiogical model,the forecast precision is not ideal,but when the radar QPE is revised,the forecast precision gets improvement.

关 键 词：雷达定量估算降雨 分组Z-I关系 新安江水文模型 洪水预报 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]