两类不同月平均气温空间推算方法的对比  

Comparison Between Two Kinds of Monthly Mean Air Temperature Calculations

作　　者：张丹[1] 邱新法[2] 曾燕[3] 钱茂[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学遥感学院,南京210044 [3]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008

出　　处：《气象》2010年第12期80-85,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：科技部公益性行业科研专项(CYHY200806002);江苏省2008年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划(CX08B_021Z)资助

摘　　要：利用全国660个常规气象站40年(1961-2000年)整编气象资料.采用逆距离权重反比法、样条函数法和普通克立格法等常用的3种插值方法,分析了直接插值法和综合余项法对气温插值的影响,提出了去除气温形成中的确定性部分后,以随机项进行插值可提高气温插值精度。并从空间上、时间上对比眲不同插值方法的误差,最后分析了气象站的空间分布密度对插值方法的敏感性。验证结果表明:除个别月份外,综合余项法的各项平均绝对误差均在1℃以内,比直接插值法减小了0.6～1.6℃,精度提高了38%～85%;且综合余项法的精度不依赖于台站密度的大小、插值方法的不同,具有较高的精确性和稳定性,这说明影响空间插值精度的关键因子并非是气象观测站点密度的提高、空问插值方法的改进。Using 40-year meteorological data at 660 conventional stations in China,the influence of direct interpolation （DI）and integrated remainder method（IRM） on temperature was analyzed by 3 intepolation methods of IDW, Kriging and Spline.A method of removing deterministic part in temperature was put forward which can improve temperature calculation precision.The error was contrasted from time to space and the interpolation sensitivity to station density was investigated finally.The result shows that;excluding some months,mean absolute error （MAE） of IRM was in 1 C which was 0.6—1.6℃lower than DI,the precision was improved by 38%—85%, The precision of IRM did not rely on station density and interpolation method which has a high accuracy and stability. That means it is not the main accesses of increasing observation stations and modifying interpolation methods on improving precision of temperature calculation.

关 键 词：气温 直接插值法 综合余项法 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]