劳动力抚养负担与居民消费率——基于人口红利期的动态面板实证研究  

Empirical Study of Dependency Load and Household Consumption Rate:Based on the Dynamic Panel during Demographic Dividend

作　　者：李魁[1] 钟水映[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省人民政府办公厅 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2010年第6期105-112,共8页Economic Review

基　　金：武汉大学优秀博士论文培育基金的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文依据1990-2006年中国30个地区的面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计方法探讨劳动力抚养负担变化对居民消费率的影响。研究表明:少儿抚养负担的减轻显著降低了我国居民消费率,而老年赡养负担对我国居民消费率的影响并不显著。劳动力抚养负担的减轻对居民消费率的影响主要由快速下降的少儿抚养负担来解释。进一步对东部、中部和西部地区进行面板分析发现,少儿抚养负担的减轻显著降低了东部和中部地区的居民消费率,而对西部地区影响不显著,同时老年赡养负担在分区域回归中均不显著。本文的研究试图说明,少儿抚养负担在全国水平上以及东、中部地区的快速下降是1990年以来居民消费率持续向下振荡的重要原因之一,但随着少儿抚养负担下降空间的缩小,它对居民消费率的影响将逐渐趋弱。The paper conducts the change of dependency burden affecting consumption rate with the method of system GMM by building a provincial panel of the whole nation and regions based on 30 provinces from 1990 to 2006.The results suggest that the declining burden of children significantly reduces the rate of consumption,but the effect of old dependency burden on it is not significant.The dependency burden affects consumption rate mainly by sharp dropping children burden.Further study on three regions shows that the reducing of the burden of children significantly drops the consumption rate in eastern and central regions,but little impact in the western regions.The regression coefficients of old dependency burden are not significant at all.The significance of the study is that the decline in consumption rate results from the sharp dropping children burden in the whole nation and eastern and central regions,but its effect on consumption rate will reduce in future because of unsustainable dropping.

关 键 词：人口红利 居民消费率 劳动力抚养负担 系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F126[经济管理—国民经济] F224