区域地质灾害评价模型综述  

Summary of Regional Geological Hazard Assessment Model

作　　者：陈玉[1,2] 蔺启忠[1] 王钦军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院对地观测与数字地球科学中心,北京110101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2010年第4期42-45,共4页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：863项目:多源遥感数据矿区环境与灾害信息精准监测技术(2009AA12Z147);863项目:重大自然灾害遥感快速响应系统(2009AA12Z102)联合资助

摘　　要：本文分别综述了经验半经验模型、数理统计模型和其它模型在区域地质灾害评价中的应用情况。探讨了这些模型在应用中存在的不确定性的主要来源,并展望了地质灾害评价模型以后的发展趋势。认为对于不同研究程度、不同灾害分布的区域应选择不同的模型;另外应该建立在对区域地质灾害发生发展充分认识的基础上优化数学模型。在评价指标的选择与量化上深入系统分析各指标之间的关联情况,进行优化重组以获得更好的结果。In this paper,we summarized the application of the geological hazard assessment models which include empirical semi-empirical model,mathematical statistics model and the other models.We discussed the origin of uncertainty of these models in application and prospected the development tendency of them.As conclusions,we should choose different models with different study areas and different kinds of hazards.Furthermore,we should optimize the models based on further studies of the generation and development pattern of the geological hazard,and systematically analyse the selection of the evaluation factors and the correlation of them to re-optimize them in order to obtain a better result.

关 键 词：区域地质灾害 评价模型 地质灾害评价 发展趋势 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]