河口治涝承泄区的设计潮位选取  

Selection of design tidal level for flood-control works in estuarine area

作　　者：刘曾美[1,2] 陈子燊[1] 吴俊校[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]华南理工大学水利水电工程系,广东广州510640 [3]广东省水利水电建设管理中心,广东广州510600

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2010年第4期21-26,共6页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50839005);广东省水利科技创新项目(2009)

摘　　要：河口区的治涝规划设计,必须合理确定与设计暴雨相组合的承泄区设计潮位.构建的承泄区设计潮位的选取方法,首先采用Copula函数构建年最大暴雨和相应潮位的联合分布,再基于联合分布和年最高潮位的分布提出治涝设计潮位的选取方法.并以位于珠江三角洲河口区的广州南沙区和位于粤东韩江河口区的汕头市龙湖区为实例来对比分析.结果表明两地的暴雨与潮位的遭遇组合规律并不相同:①如对10年一遇及以上年最大暴雨,若与10年一遇年最高潮位相组合,在广州市南沙区,其组合风险率几乎为0;而在汕头市龙湖区,其组合风险率达5.97%以上.②若以10年一遇设计暴雨与10年一遇年最高潮位为设计组合,在广州市南沙区,其排涝重现期接近10年;而在汕头市龙湖区,其排涝重现期仅为6.52年.For flood-control works in estuarine areas,it is necessary to select the design tidal level rationally considering the design rainstorm.The analysis method for selecting the design tidal level of the reach which takes over floodwater from waterlogged land is established in this paper.Firstly,different Copula functions are used to build the bivariate joint distribution of the annual maximum rainstorm and its corresponding tidal level.Then,based on the bivariate joint distribution and distribution of annual maximum tidal level,the analysis method for selecting the design tidal level is put forward.Two examples are used： one is Nansha district of Guangzhou,which is located in the estuary of the Pearl River Delta,and the other is Longhu district of Shantou,which is located in the estuary of the Han River in the east of Guangdong Province.The results indicate： there are two different kinds of laws about rainstorm meeting with tidal level in Nansha of Guangzhou and Longhu of Shantou： ① for the annual maximum rainstorm with a no less than ten-year return period,if combined with annual maximum tidewater levels with a ten-year return period,the combinatorial risk probability is almost zero in Nansha of Guangzhou,while in Longhu of Shantou,the combinatorial risk probability is not less than 5.97%;and ② for the design rainstorm with a ten-year return period,if the design tidal level is the annual maximum tidal level with a five-year return period,in Nansha of Guangzhou,the return period for stagnant water drainage is almost 10 years;while in Longhu of Shantou,the return period for stagnant water drainage is only 6.52 years.

关 键 词：河口区 治涝 设计潮位 风险率 重现期 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]