经济开放度与中国货币政策的有效性——引入经济开放度的IS-LM-BP模型及验证  

Economic Openness and China'S Monetary Policy Efficiency——Verification of The IS-LM-BP Model Introduced Restriciton of Economic Openness

作　　者：成力为[1] 孟雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第6期50-60,共11页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：黑龙江省社会科学基金(08B025)

摘　　要：开放经济下货币政策的有效性一直是国际宏观经济学理论和实证研究的热点,也是中国经济持续稳定增长面临的重要课题。考虑到IS曲线和LM曲线表示的行为方程在中国基本成立的实际,构建了引入经济开放度的IS-LM-BP模型,并利用1985—2007年度数据经济开放度对货币政策有效性的影响进行实证分析得到:第一,在目前不完全对外开放下,我国货币政策在短期内仍具有非中性特征;第二,通过我国各层次的货币供给量(M0、M1、M2)与经济开放度和经济增长率交叉项负相关关系的实证研究,验证了理论模型中随经济开放度增加、降低我国货币政策产出效应的结论;第三,通过我国货币供应量M1、M2与经济开放度和物价上涨率交叉项正相关关系的实证研究,验证了理论模型中随经济开放度增加、降低我国货币政策价格效应的结论。To study the effectiveness of monetary policy in open economy has been a hotspot in both the international macroeconomic theory and empirical research,and it is also an important subject to keep sustained and stable growth of China＇s economy.Considering the situation that IS-LM curve behavior equation existed fundamentally in China,this article modified the IS-LM-BP model by introducing the economic openness.On the base of annual data from 1985 to 2007,by studying empirically the impact of economic openness on monetary policy efficiency,this article came to the following conclusion： firstly,in the recent incomplete opening economy,China＇s monetary policy will remain non-neutral in a short time;secondly,from the results of empirical evidence that money supplies on different layers（such as M0,M1,M2） was negatively correlated with the cross-term of economic openness and growth rate,the conclusion that the output effects of monetary policy was weakened by the increase of economic openness in the theoretical model was confirmed;thirdly,from the results of empirical evidence that money supplies M1,M2 was positively correlated with the cross-term of economic openness and price rise,the conclusion that the price effects of monetary policy was strengthened by the increase of economic openness in the theoretical model was confirmed.

关 键 词：经济开放度 货币政策产出效应 货币政策价格效应 IS-LM-BP模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]