突发性泄漏事件大气环境与健康风险评估系统研究  

Development of risk assessment system of atmospheric environment and health for accidental chemical release

作　　者：蒋自强[1] 张欣[1] 王体健[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2010年第6期127-132,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：科技部863项目(2007AA06A408)

摘　　要：针对近些年频繁发生的突发性泄漏事件,为了能快速应急响应以降低事故的伤害程度,构建了突发性泄漏事件大气环境与健康风险评估系统。该系统以广泛应用的重气扩散模型SLAB以及最佳毒物伤害准则AEGLs为基础,将两者有机结合,可以实时有效地给出毒物事故性泄漏所造成的致死、致残、致伤等伤害区域分布以及各区域的最大半宽、最大纵深和面积统计量。针对事故的泄漏方式、泄漏物质、持续泄漏时间和气象条件等因子进行了一系列敏感性试验。分析表明,事故性泄漏的伤害区域分布几乎不受泄漏方式、环境温度、相对湿度的影响,而主要取决于泄漏物质、持续泄漏时间、环境风速和环境稳定度等因素。With regard to frequent accidental chemical release in recent years, a risk assessment system of atmospheric environment and health with immediate response to the emergency incident should be designed in order to reduce the harm and losses. First of all, a widely-used dense gas dispersion model SLAB and one of the best public exposure guidelines AEGLs were briefly introduced. Then on the basis of these recognitions, we have organically combined the SLAB model with AEGI,s in the construction of mentioned assessment system. This system can timely and effectively identify the distribution of hazardous zones that could make general public lethal, disabling, nondisabling etc. It is able to work out their corresponding statistics such as maximum half width, maximum depth and area. Furthermore, towards constructing the assessment system, a series of sensitivity tests were performed in terms of mode, species and duration of leakage as well as meteorological conditions （including ambient wind speed, ambient temperature, relative humidity and stability）. The analysis showed that, （1） leakage mode, ambient temperature and relative humidity have a little effect on the distribution of hazardous zones; （2） due to the great difference between density and toxicity, different substances cause different distribution of hazardous zones, which mainly depends on the relative contribution of their effects; （3） when the total mass of leakage remains the same and duration of leakage is extended because of source control, total area distribution of hazardous zones can be reduced effectively; （4） strong ambient wind speed or instability will greatly constrict the total area of severe hazardous zones, i.e. lethal and disabling zones. However increasing ambient wind speed or instability produces nonlinear area of non-disabling zones and then it may lead to a wider range of injuries and losses. From these results, we may reasonably conclude that the distributions of hazardous zones are mainly dependent on factors such

关 键 词：大气科学 健康风险 伤害区域 SLAB AEGLs 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]