当前世界经济周期波动特点与趋势分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Trends of the Fluctuation of Current World Business Cycle

作　　者：王悦[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2010年第6期3-7,共5页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<美国金融危机对中国的影响及应对措施研究>(项目编号:09BJY002)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：上世纪90年代,由"新经济"推动的世界经济周期于2001年底到达谷底,2002、2003年世界经济渐渐复苏,进入新一轮周期的增长期。2007年次贷危机爆发并由此引发全球金融危机,促使该轮世界经济周期进入衰退期。本文对当前世界经济周期波动特点及其变动趋势进行研究,尤其对此次金融危机对当前世界经济周期波动特征的影响进行研究,在此基础上得出朱格拉世界经济中周期以及康氏世界经济长周期的变动趋势,对我国的经济运行提出几点建议。The round of the world business cycle driven by ‘new economy＇ in the 90s of last century reached to the bottom at the end of 2001. Then the world economy gradually recovered in the period of 2002 to 2003, when the world economy entered a new round of cycle. The sub--prime crisis outbroke in 2007 triggered the global financial crisis, and led the round of the world business cycle into recession. This article studies the characteristics and trends of the fluctuation of current world business cycle, especially the characteristics after the financial crisis triggered by the sub--prime crisis. On this basis, this article summarizes the trends of the fluctuation of Juglar Cycle and Kondratieff Cycle of the world economy. In addition, this article also puts forward some suggestions to China＇ economic operation.

关 键 词：朱格拉周期 世界经济周期 康氏长周期 

分 类 号：F112[经济管理—国际贸易]