省域一次能源CO_2排放的空间计量经济分析  

Spatial Econometric Analysis on China's Provincial Primary Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emission

作　　者：马军杰[1] 陈震[2] 尤建新[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学法学院,上海200092 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《技术经济》2010年第12期62-67,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"低碳经济发展评价指标;战略规划与配套政策研究"(2009BAC62B01)

摘　　要：本文结合STIRPAT扩展模型,依据一次能源消耗数据测算了1990—2006年中国30个省(区、市)的碳排放量,并对潜在影响因子进行了分析。结果显示,中国省域二氧化碳排放呈现出明显的空间自相关性,其中能源强度、人口增长率、经济发展水平是区域二氧化碳排放的主要驱动因子,而城市化水平与区域碳排放未表现出明显的相关特征。同时,省域二氧化碳排放存在空间相关性和空间异质性并存的现象。而显著性检验结果显示,这种现象是系统过程的作用结果。区域的经济发展水平及经济结构与二氧化碳排放水平在空间上存在耦合现象。这意味着,在制定区域环保和能源政策及措施时,必须对碳排放及其影响因子的空间相互作用机制进行综合分析。Based on an extended STIRPAT model and spatial autoregressive model,this paper investigates the energy-related CO2 emission of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2006 and the underlying driving factors.The result shows that the provincial CO2 emission is characterized by the spatial autocorrelation,and energy intensity,population growth and economic development are the main contributors to the provincial CO2 emission,while urbanization is not an inevitable factor.There is the coexistence of spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the provincial CO2 emission,which is due to a systematic process.There exists sptial couple between carbon emission and regional economic developmentstucture,which means that the spatial interaction mechanism between carbon emission and its impact factors must be taken into account when making regional policies and measures on environmental protection and energy consumption.

关 键 词：一次能源 CO2排放 空间自相关 省域 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F205