国防支出与经济增长均衡关系的理论和实证研究——基于门槛回归模型的检验分析  

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Equilibrium Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth Based on Threshold Regression Model

作　　者：王万珺[1,2] 陈晓和[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国防经济研究中心,上海200434 [2]南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《财经研究》2011年第1期16-26,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(07AJY024);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(09YJC790009);上海市重点学科建设项目(B802);上海财经大学211项目(211-9-8)的资助

摘　　要：文章首先将国防支出纳入Solow增长模型进行理论分析,假定国防支出通过影响技术进步对经济增长产生影响。与现有实证分析不同,文章基于1952-2008年中国的有关时间序列数据,尝试运用非线性门槛回归模型来分析国防支出与经济增长之间的数量关系。研究发现:国防支出与经济增长之间存在门槛效应,国防支出占GDP的比例低于3.434%时,国防支出占GDP的比例的增加不利于经济增长,且这种负面作用较为显著;当该比例高于3.434%时,该比例的增加将显著促进经济增长。当然,该比例并非越低越好,也并非越高越好,其局部最优规模由次级门槛值决定。This paper firstly introduces defense spending into Solow growth model and hypothesizes that defense spending affects economic growth through its impact on technological progress.Different from existing empirical analysis,this paper tries to analyze the relation between defense spending and economic growth through a nonlinear threshold regression model,using time series data of China from 1952 to 2008.The conclusions are as follows： a） there is a threshold effect between defense spending and economic growth;b）when the proportion of defense spending to GDP is lower than 3.434%,the increase in this proportion is not beneficial to economic growth,and this negative effect is significant;c） when the proportion of defense spending to GDP is higher than 3.434%,the increase in this proportion will significantly contribute to economic growth.Certainly,the optimal proportion of defense spending to GDP is neither the lowest nor the highest,and the local optimal levels of this proportion should be determined by the sub-threshold value.

关 键 词：国防支出 经济增长 Solow增长模型 门槛回归模型 

分 类 号：F063.3[经济管理—政治经济学]