农作物灾损量评估模型改进及应用  

Improved Crops Yield Loss Evaluation Model and Its Application

作　　者：刘代勇[1] 梁忠民[1] 李磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]国核电力规划设计研究院,北京100094

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第1期106-108,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(200901022)

摘　　要：针对近年来自然灾害频发给我国农业经济带来极大损失的问题,从影响农作物的生长因素入手,结合农作物播种面积及单位面积产量,提出了一种改进后的农作物灾损量评估模型,并以陕西省为例,对1990～2008年的实际农作物生长统计资料进行了农作物灾损量估算,评价了农作物灾损率。结果表明,陕西省19 a农作物灾损率年平均约为9.796%。In recent years,frequent natural disasters bring a great loss to China＇s agricultural economy.Based on the factors for influence on normal growth of crops,combining with the planting area for actual crops and the yield per unit area,this paper puts forward an improved disaster yield loss of crops evaluation model.Taking the Shanxi Province for an example,disaster yield loss of crops is estimated by using statistical data for actual crops yields from 1990 to 2008 years and the disaster rate of crops is assessed.The results show that the annual average disaster loss rate of crops is 9.796 percent in recent 19 years in Shanxi Province.

关 键 词：自然灾害 农作物 灾损量 评估模型 灾损率 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]