基于经济时间序列预测的露天矿开采境界动态优化  

Open pit mining limit dynamic optimization based on economic time series forecasting

作　　者：杨彪[1] 罗周全[1] 陆广[1] 鹿浩[1] 王益伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2011年第1期29-33,共5页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划专题(2007BAK22B04-12)

摘　　要：为获得更为优越的露天矿山境界,构建了集经济时间序列预测、矿岩时间属性赋值和动态经济指标计算为一体的境界全动态优化方法。金属价格是矿山境界优化过程中最重要的因素之一,以金属价格历史数据为平台,通过创建合适时间序列模型,对未来价格做出预测,以预测结果为基础,运用L-G图论法生成系列境界方案,根据矿山实际情况编排进度计划,实现矿岩块参数赋值,将预测结果代入到矿岩块体模型中,计算境界净现值(NPV),经多方案比较确定最优境界。以某铜矿山为例,通过对近50 a伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜精矿季度平均结算价格分析处理,建立了自回归求和移动平均模型(ARIMA),实现了未来15 a铜价预测,最终确定了矿山经济最优境界。建立于金属价格预测基础上的境界动态优化方法所得方案NPV更接近生产实际,其优化结果可更好为矿山设计及未来生产提供基础支撑。In order to get a better mining limit of surface mine,the method of mining limit dynamic optimization was proposed.The method was a synthetical system of economic time series forecasting,block time attribute giving and dynamic economic indicators computing.Metal price is one of the most important factors in the mining limit optimization,by the time series forecasting method which is on the basis of historical data,to get the future value from suitable forecast model and price parameter.The series limit pits were created from L-G graph theoretic approach which was based on forecasting metal price.Analyzed the exploitation technique of the complex mining,and arranged the schedule for each limit pit.The forecasting metal price was dragged in every schedule project;finally chose the best optimization scheme through comparing net present value.Taking a surface mine as example,by building autoregressive integrated moving average model based on London Metal Exchange copper quarter average settlement price of the recent fifty years,to forecasted the future fifteen years copper price and got the best economic mining limit.Mining limit dynamic optimization that builds on metal price forecasting can get more actual net present value,and is a new way to define the best mining limit.

关 键 词：露天矿山 开采境界 时间序列预测 动态优化 金属售价 

分 类 号：TD824[矿业工程—煤矿开采]