不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应：一个文献综述  

A Literature Review about Real Estate Prices Volatility and Monetary Policy Reaction under Uncertainty

作　　者：段忠东[1,2] 朱孟楠[3] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学应用经济学博士后流动站,361005 [2]厦门理工学院商学系,361024 [3]厦门大学经济学院,361005

出　　处：《经济评论》2011年第1期135-144,160,共11页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究一般项目“基于全球经济复苏背景的房价冲击、宏观经济稳定与货币政策研究”(项目编号:10YJC790054);福建省社科规划项目“货币政策调控的外部冲击研究--基于房价波动的视角”(项目编号:2009B049);厦门理工学院社科研究项目“房价波动与货币政策的关系研究”(项目编号:YSK08007R)的资助

摘　　要：本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。This thesis reviews the literatures about how monetary policy responses to real estate bubble.The study found：debates among foreign and domestic research in this field include indirect response,afterward adaptive reaction and direct intervention,current literatures put forward two direction revising monetary policy frameworks in order to prevent house price from abnormally fluctuating,and scholars have reached concensus in the role of financial supervision.The main results are as follows：the decisive factor influncing monetary policy choice is uncertainties in policy environment,and so appropriate policy choice is the integration of the direct intervention and indirect response to house price bubble in an uncertain environment;coordination of monetary policy and prudential supervision of financial should help to achieve the goal of economic and financial stability;the real estate credit policies used in controlling house price bubble are more effective.The theretical and rational researches of demestic scholar are still very weak,they have not made realistic inspection integrating special factors of institutions in the context of economy transition,and it is worthing further research that broden study angle to open economy.

关 键 词：不确定性 房地产价格 货币政策反应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0F224