内外部均衡目标下的汇率政策选择  

Exchange Rate Policy Choices towards the Target of Internal and External Balance

作　　者：龙超[1] 张文[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院 [2]云南财经大学

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第1期26-34,共9页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：本文对汇率升值有助于促进国际收支平衡和货币政策独立性的观点提出质疑。本文指出以双顺差为特征的国际收支失衡是经济结构失衡的表现,外部失衡状况难以通过汇率调整得到纠正。汇率升值短期内可能会使外汇流入增加,此外,如果在人民币汇率长期保持升值态势的同时推进利率市场化改革,中国可能会陷入流动性陷阱。因此,应合理把握人民币汇率升值的频率和幅度,为国内金融改革和人民币国际化创造缓冲时间。This paper doubts the ordinary view that appreciation is conducive to the balance of payments and the independence of monetary policy. The double surplus of the balance of payments reflects the economic imbalance, and the external imbalance cannot be corrected solely by exchange rate policy. In the short run, appreciation could enhance the foreign exchange inflow. In the long run, appreciation would make the monetary policy lose an anchor. If the market based interest rate reform proceeds against the background of long term appreciation, China would fall into a liquidity trap, The frequency and scope of RMB appreciation should be carefully controlled to create an effective cushion for the financial reform and RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：汇率 国际收支 货币政策 流动性陷阱 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]