基于多因素分析的复杂电力系统安全风险评估体系  

A Security Risk Assessment System of Complicated Power Grid Based on Multiple Factor Analysis

作　　者：王博[1] 游大海[1] 尹项根[1] 陈庆前[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北省武汉市430074 [2]国家电力监管委员会南方监管局,广东省广州市510180

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第1期40-45,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50877031)~~

摘　　要：以大面积停电事件多因素分析为基础,利用事故树分析和层次分析方法建立了一套具有客观性、实用性、适用性的电力系统安全风险评估体系。该体系可发挥政府部门在统筹、协调、组织社会资源方面的管理优势,以及电力企业在电力安全稳定运行方面的技术优势,从而更全面地降低电力系统安全风险,防止大面积停电事件发生。最后利用该评估体系对国内某省级电力系统进行了实际评估,得到了该电力系统的大面积停电风险水平。评估结果验证了评估方法和评估指标的可行性。Based on multiple factor analysis of large area blackout accidents and by use of fault tree analysis and analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, a security risk assessment system, which is objective, practicable and applicable for complicated power grid, is established. This assessment system can fully bring government departments＇ management advantages in overall planning, coordination and organization of social resources as well as technical superiority of electric power enterprises in secure and stable operation of power grids into play, thereby the security risk of power grids can be all-sidedly reduced to prevent the occurrence of large area blackout accidents. Practical assessment of a certain provincial power grid in China is performed by this assessment system, and the risk level of large area blackout of this power grid is obtained. The feasibility of the proposed risk assessment method and that of its assessment indices are verified by assessment results.

关 键 词：安全风险评估 复杂电力系统 层次分析法 大面积停电 事故树分析 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]