中国劳动力市场的结构转型与供求拐点  

Structural Transformation and Supply and Demand Infection Point of the Chinese Labor Market

作　　者：高铁梅[1] 范晓非[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2011年第1期22-31,共10页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010);国家自然科学基金项目(70673009)

摘　　要：本文从农业、劳动密集型行业及收入差距等角度建立了计量经济模型,论证和检验了中国劳动力市场的结构转型。结论是:①由农业总产出曲线计算的农业劳动边际产出在2005年之前均为负值,2006年开始转为正值,并且快速增长。②从制造业和建筑业劳动力供给模型可以明显地看出2004年之后劳动供给曲线明显向上倾斜。③从全国、城镇和农村的基尼系数及城镇库兹涅茨曲线可以看出收入差距有缩小的趋势,说明我国城镇出现了代表经济阶段性变化的库兹涅茨倒U型曲线的转折点。以上实证研究表明中国已在2005年后越过刘易斯第一转折点(即短缺点),进入劳动力有限供给阶段。In this paper, we establish econometric models from agriculture, labor- intensive industry and the income gap aspects to demonstrate and test the Chinese labor market structural transformation. Conclusions axe as follows： （ i ）In order to calculate the marginal product of agricultural labor,we estimate the total agricultural output curve. And the marginal product are negative before 2005, turn positive in 2006, and increase rapidly after 2005. （ ii ） From the manufacturing and building trade＇s labor supply models, we can see that the labor supply curves upward raked after 2004. （ iii ） We also calculated Chinese urban, rural and na- tional Gird coefficient. From the urban Kuznets curve, we can see that the trend of the income gap has narrowed, indicating that the Chinese economic appeared phase changes. That is to say there is the turning point of Kuznets inverted U - curve in the eco- nomic. These empirical studies have shown that China negotiated the Lewis first turning point （ shortage point）, entered the stage of labor force limited supply after 2005.

关 键 词：劳动力市场 结构转型 刘易斯转折点 基尼系数 库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]