石羊河流域近50年最高最低气温变化分析  

Maximum and minimum temperature changes in Shiyang River Basin in the last 50 years

作　　者：王兴梅[1] 张勃[1] 王海军[1] 康淑媛[1] 杨明金[1] 李丹[1] 张凯[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2010年第6期879-888,共10页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961038);公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY200806021-07);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YWQ10-4);甘肃省自然科学基金(3ZS061-A25-009);生态经济学甘肃省级重点学科(5001-063)共同资助

摘　　要：选取石羊河流域具有代表性的气象站近50 a的年、月最高最低气温观测数据,对春季、夏季、秋季、冬季及年最高最低气温序列进行直线拟合,分析了年和季节的变化规律,并对最高最低气温时间序列进行了小波分析和突变分析,分析了时间序列变化的周期性和突变性。结果表明:近50 a来石羊河流域最高气温和最低气温在所有的季节都是增高的,最低气温的增温趋势明显高于最高气温,且冬季最高最低气温增温最强,年的最低气温和最高气温的增温趋势和变化幅度明显,升温率分别为0.53℃/10 a和0.199℃/10 a;最高气温以25 a,20 a周期为主周期,最低气温具有一致性,年和季节都以25 a周期为显著,春季和冬季的最高最低气温主周期都是25 a,夏季的最高最低气温主周期都是20 a;年最高气温没有检测到显著的突变性,而年最低气温在1984年发生了突变,春季和冬季的最高气温分别在2003年和1986年发生突变,春季和夏季的最低气温都在2001年发生突变,秋季最高气温、最低气温和冬季最低气温的突变都发生在20世纪90年代初。With global warming, hot days and warm nights have significantly increased, but cold days and cold nights have decreased, the frequencies of extreme weather and climate events occurrence have significantly in- creased. Warming in the past 50 years mainly was due to night-time temperature increasing, which reflects the con- tinual strengthening of the greenhouse effect that not only is entirely attributed to human activities but also atmos- pheric moisture. Further correlation analysis show that, the variety of maximum temperature and the changes of sun- shine condition have a good consistency,while the variety of minimum temperature and the atmospheric water vapor content have a good relationship, the correlationship between the atmospheric water vapor content and the percentage of sunshine is opposite. This paper analyzes maximum and minimum temperature changes in the Shiyang River Basin in the last 50 years, using Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann - kendall method. Selecting the yearly and monthly maxi- mum and minimum temperature observational data of representative weather stations in the Shiyang River Basin for nearly 50 years. The paper gets the annual maximum and minimum temperature and the seasons （ spring, summer, autumn,winter） maximum and minimum temperature sequences fitting a straight line, analyzes the annual and sea- sonal variations as well as maximum and minimum temperature time series of wavelet and mutation, and further ana- lyzes time series variation and mutation. The results in the study area showas follows：over the past 50 years in the Shiyang River Basin, annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperatures all exhibit increasing tendency, the warming trends and changes of the annual average minimum temperature and maximum temperatures are clear,heating rates are 0.53℃/10 a and 0. 199 ℃/10 a,while the seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures are increased ,warming trend of the minimum temperature is clearly higher than that of the maximum temperature, winter minimum and maximum

关 键 词：石羊河流域 最高气温 最低气温 Mann—Kendall法 小波分析 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]