基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究  

Regional design flood composition based on Copula function

作　　者：闫宝伟[1] 郭生练[1] 郭靖[1] 陈璐[1] 刘攀[1] 陈华[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2010年第6期60-65,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2009BAC56B02);国家自然科学基金项目(51079100);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015)

摘　　要：洪水地区组成具有较强的随机性,最科学的分析方法是给出各地区洪水的联合分布,本文应用Copula函数构造了上游断面与区间洪水的联合分布,提出和推导了两种有代表性的设计洪水地区组成:条件期望组成和最可能组成。由条件期望地区组成分析了同频率组成所处的水平,应用实例表明,同频率组成保证率偏低,低于期望水平。本文所推导的条件期望组成还包含了置信区间等信息,为决策人员明晰决策风险提供了依据;推求的最可能组成考虑了地区间洪水的空间相关性,更加符合客观实际,为设计洪水地区组成分析计算提供了一条新的途径。Regional flood composition is in general a spatially stochastic problem,and the most scientific analysis method is to construct a joint distribution for the composition regions.In this paper,Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution of upper-station flood and interval-basin flood.The conditional expectation composition and most likely composition were proposed and derived.The guarantee level of equivalent frequency composition was analyzed by comparing with conditional expectation composition.A case study suggests that conditional expectation composition is at a low guarantee level.The derived equivalent frequency composition contains confidence interval and other information that is useful to decision-making.The derived most likely composition that considers the spatial correlation of regional flood is more practical.The proposed method provides a new approach for analysis of regional flood composition.

关 键 词：设计洪水 地区组成 COPULA函数 条件期望组合 最可能组合 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]