考虑城市土地功能变化与负荷特性的城市电力负荷预测模型  

Urban load forecast model based on land use change and load characteristics

作　　者：李德智[1] 何永秀[2] 张宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [2]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国电力》2011年第1期6-10,共5页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671042;70771039);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(07JA790092)

摘　　要：城市经济发展呈现出一定的阶段性特点,城市产业结构能够很好地反映这些特点,将城市产业结构的变化反映到城市电力需求预测当中对提高城市电力需求预测精度具有重要意义。城市用地性质的变化可以间接地反映出城市产业结构的变化。引进元胞自动机方法,从预测城市用地性质的变化入手,结合城市经济与电力发展周期关系、电力负荷密度、同时率等,建立了城市电力需求预测模型,并进行了实证分析,通过实证研究证明了该方法的可行性。Urban economic development has certain stage characteristics which can be well reflected by urban industrial structure. It is of great significance to improve load forecast accuracy by applying the change of urban industrial structure to urban power demand forecasting. Because the change of urban industrial structure can be reflected indirectly by the property change of urban land, a cellular automata method was introduced and a comprehensive urban electricity demand prediction model was built by combining different factors, such as urban land property change forecasting, the periodic relationship between the urban economy and power development, power load density and load coincidence factor. The empirical analysis was conducted and the result proved the feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：城市电力 城市经济 周期 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]