基于GA和回归分析的奥运会成绩预测研究  

Olympic Performance Prediction based on GA and Regression Analysis

作　　者：王国凡[1] 赵武[1] 刘徐军[1] 丰淑慧[2] 薛二剑[1] 陈林[1] 王波[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学体育学院,安徽芜湖241003 [2]马鞍山师范高等专科学校基础部体育教研室,安徽马鞍山243041

出　　处：《中国体育科技》2011年第1期4-8,16,共6页China Sport Science and Technology

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSK07-08D102)

摘　　要：针对传统以计量经济学原理建立的奥运会成绩预测多元回归分析模型中存在的问题,提出一种将GA、竞技体育实力评估和回归分析相结合的预测模型。利用GA对竞技体育实力进行动态有监督优化评估;在此基础上,结合回归分析和GA的全局优化能力,建立了奥运会参赛国成绩与影响因子之间复杂的非线性关系;计算得出了参赛国的竞技体育实力。结果表明,该方法预测精度高、稳定性好。Based on the problem existed in the model of multiple regression analysis of Olympics performance forecasting by means of econometrics,a forecasting model is presented by joining genetic algorithm,assessment of competitive sports strength and regression analysis.With genetic algorithm,this paper evaluates the competitive sports strength with the method of dynamical supervised optimization.On the basis of it,combining regression analysis with global optimization ability of genetic algorithm,the author establishes a complicated non-linear relation between Olympics participation countries and influence factors.This model computes out the competitive ability of participation countries.The result shows that this method has high precision of forecasting and good stability.

关 键 词：GA 回归分析 竞技体育实力 奥运会 成绩 预测 

分 类 号：G80-30[文化科学—运动人体科学]