中国电力行业周期波动特征及电力需求影响因素分析——基于景气分析及误差修正模型的研究  

Characteristics of Electricity Industry Cycle Fluctuation and Influential Factors of Electricity Demand Based on Business Analysis and the Error Correction Model

作　　者：刘畅[1] 高铁梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学,大连116025

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第1期169-177,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:"具有多维数据结构的中国经济景气监测系统的研究与应用"(编号:70673009)

摘　　要：2008年的国际金融危机使我国电力消费需求快速下降,而宏观经济却保持正增长,这一现象使人们怀疑数据的真实性。本文使用景气分析方法建立了电力行业景气指数,分析了2000年以来电力行业的周期波动特征,并使用月度数据建立了误差修正模型,研究了影响电力行业波动的长期经济因素和短期动态调整效应。研究结果表明,电力行业景气与宏观经济波动具有一致的变化趋势,但波动幅度不同;工业经济增长、高耗电行业结构、库存及电力需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,工业经济增长和经济结构重型化是影响电力需求的最重要因素,库存与电力需求之间存在显著负相关关系;从金融危机时期电力行业波动的谷底来看,工业经济下滑和高耗电行业结构变化是电力行业周期波动出现深谷的主要原因,特别地,由于市场需求变化引起的库存调整能够导致电力需求更剧烈的波动;无论是长期还是短期,电价对电力需求的影响都不显著。Due to the outbreak of the global financial crisis and its impact on the real economy in China, China’s electricity consumption demand reduced significantly. In the second half of year 2008, the contradiction that electricity consumption declination was accompanied with GDP growth occurred. The authors examined characteristics of cyclical fluctuation of the electricity industry, the relationship between the electricity industry cycle and macro economic cycle, and factors affecting changes in electricity consumption. Using monthly macro and performance data across the period January 1999-November 2009, the authors first constructed the business indexes for China’s electricity industry with business analysis methods to analyze characteristics of the electricity industry cycle and fluctuation since 2000. With the time difference correlation analysis and cyclical pattern matching methods, the authors selected 16 indicators from more than 200 economic indicators, including monthly macro-indicators and performance indicators, to represent the leading, coincident, and lagging indicator sets, respectively. The composite indexes of the electricity industry were calculated using the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research’s （NBER） composite index （CI） method in terms of such indicator sets. Results show that China’s electricity industry has experienced two complete cycles since 2000. The business indexes reached the lowest ebb in January 2009. It is currently in the rising phase of the third cycle. The electricity industry generally shows a coincident fluctuation trend with the macro-economy, but with different fluctuation amplitudes. Subsequently, the authors analyzed the long-term factors and short-term dynamic adjustment effect that impacts the electricity demand in China by developing an error correction model in conjunction with monthly data. The results of the empirical analysis indicate that there exists a stable long-term equilibrium among industrial economic growth, high energy-consuming industri

关 键 词：电力行业景气 经济周期 误差修正模型 电力需求 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]