美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率的灰色关联度分析  

Gray Relational Analysis of US-China Trade Deficit and RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：王教荣[1] 范建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2011年第1期38-41,共4页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：运用灰色关联度分析方法研究美中经常性贸易逆差与人民币汇率以及美国对华限制出口的相关关系,研究表明:人民币汇率与美中贸易逆差灰色关联度较小,显著小于与美国对华高科技出口限制因素的关联性。因此,不存在我国操纵汇率补贴出口企业保持对美国的贸易高顺差,美中贸易逆差主要是结构性逆差以及美国对华限制性出口政策的结果,人民币升值无益于美中贸易逆差的缩小。In this paper,we study the correlation among the recurrent trade deficit and RMB exchange rate as well as U.S.restrictions on exports with gray correlation analysis method.The study shows that the correlation between RMB exchange rate and the U.S.trade deficit is small,which was significantly less than the relevance with the U.S.high-tech export.So there is no manipulation of the exchange rate for export enterprises in China to remain high on the U.S.trade surplus.The trade deficit is a structural deficit and the results of U.S.restrictive export policy.RMB appreciation is useless to narrow the U.S.trade deficit.

关 键 词：灰色关联度 人民币汇率 结构性逆差 汇率操纵 

分 类 号：F757.128.2[经济管理—国际贸易]