航空短期区域气候模式预测系统研究  

A Study of the Aviation Short-Term Regional Climate Model Prediction Operational System

作　　者：鞠永茂 王汉杰[2] 万应虎 景丽[3] 李良富[3] 杨成荫[4] 

机构地区：[1]解放军61741部队 [2]中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室 [3]空军装备研究院航空气象防化研究所 [4]解放军理工大学气象学院

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2011年第1期85-93,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划2011CB403202;国家自然科学基金40675040

摘　　要：基于国家气候中心的海气耦合业务预测系统CGCM_1.1的预测资料产品,集成并完善了一个单向嵌套的、中尺度海气耦合的区域气候模式ASRegCM,并以其为数值计算核心,建立了一套航空短期区域气候预测业务系统ASRCPOS。对1983～2002年(共20年)的回报试验结果显示,ASRCPOS业务预测水平较前期统计预测为主业务系统的预测水平有一定程度的提高。尤其是在对连续型变量地面气温的距平,以及对非连续型变量地面降水的距平量级预测能力方面,该动力业务系统预测能力较前期业务系统有所改善。回报结果同时显示,业务系统在异常天气气温的预测方面存在较大的改进空间,对月以下时间尺度预报的解释应用方面仍存在一定的局限。A regional atmospheric and oceanic coupled model named Aviation Short-term Regional Climate Model （ASRegCM） is developed and nested into the short-term climate prediction model CGCM_1.1 from the National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,which forms an operational prediction system ASRCPOS for aviation climate prediction. 20-year experiments from 1983 to 2002 were conducted using ASRCPOS. Numerical results show that ASRCPOS can improve prediction accuracy as compared with global scale prediction system of CGCM_1.1,and with earlier results by statistic approach. ASRCPOS makes great progress in anomalous sign prediction accuracy particularly for the spatial continuous variables such as surface temperature. It also raises the prediction accuracy of the anomalous magnitude of spatial discontinuous variables such as precipitation. The present numerical experiments show there are still lots of works to be done to improve the prediction accuracy of ASRCPOS,particularly for the climate durations of the abnormal temperature,and for the forecasts with time scale below one month.

关 键 词：气候预测 海气耦合模式 区域气候模式 评估 

分 类 号：P437[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]