高技术渗透演化过程的随机分析  

Study on Birth-death Process in the Evolution Modes of High-tech Effusion

作　　者：吴翰[1] 马庆国[1] 姚志坚[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学工商管理学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《科研管理》1999年第5期61-67,共7页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：高技术渗透是推动产业高技术化的有效方式，是实现我国产业结构调整、经济成功转型的优化选择。本文运用随机分析中的生灭过程理论，细致地描述了高技术渗透的微观机理，探讨了高技术渗透的三种演进模式；并且结合数理方法。It is an effective modus to promote industries high in technology by high-tech effusion, and it is also an optimizing choice to carry out the adjustment of industrial constitution and successfully transformation of economy In this paper, it presents the microcosmic mechanism of high-tech effusion and discusses three modes of high-tech effusion by Birth-Death Process Theory in Stochastic Analysis. In the end, it put out a mathematical prove on the thesis that Increasing Return Rule is the key factor in the choice of dominant technology.

关 键 词：高技术渗透 演化模式 生灭过程 报酬递增 中国 

分 类 号：G322[文化科学]