改进欧拉算法的GM(1,1)模型预测滑坡变形  

The landslide deformation prediction with improved Euler Method of Gray System Model GM(1,1)

作　　者：徐毅青[1] 唐益群[2] 李献勇 叶桂明 

机构地区：[1]浙江树人大学城建学院,杭州310015 [2]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092 [3]台州市诸永高速公路建设指挥部,磐安322305 [4]浙江华东勘探工程有限公司,杭州310028

出　　处：《水文地质工程地质》2011年第1期110-113,共4页Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology

基　　金："十一.五"国家科技支撑计划(2008BAJ08B14-06);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y107710)

摘　　要：在传统的GM(1,1)模型建模的基础上,采用改进欧拉算法简化GM(1,1)模型中参数的求解过程,进行滑坡变形动态预测。本文根据某高速公路滑坡治理过程中的变形监测数据,应用改进的模型进行滑坡变形动态预测,通过预测结果和实际监测数据进行对比分析,结果表明:改进欧拉算法的GM(1,1)模型参数计算简单,且预测精度为一级;不仅适用于滑坡变形等时距监测数据的低增长序列预测,也适用于高增长序列预测,证明该改进欧拉算法的有效性。Based on study and analysis of conventional grey GM（1,1） model,the Euler Method is improved to solve parameters of GM（1,1） model,which is applied to predict landslide deformation with displacement monitoring data collected in the process of landslide treatment.It has higher precision than conventional grey GM（1,1） model in the deformation of landslide.Taking one high-steep landslide of highway for example to forecast its deformation behavior,the prediction results and monitoring data show that the improved GM（1,1） method is more convenient and accurate compared with the conventional way.The predicting result agrees well with the monitoring data,which can be used to predict landslide deformation not only in low growth sequence of equal interval monitoring data,but also in high growth sequence.The reasonable result shows the validity and feasibility of the improved GM（1,1） method for landslide displacement prediction.

关 键 词：改进的GM(1 1)模型 欧拉算法 滑坡 变形预测 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]