干旱指数在杭州市历年旱涝特征分析中的应用  

Application of Drought Indices in Historical Droughts and Flood Analysis in Hangzhou

作　　者：林盛吉[1] 张庆庆[1] 俞超锋 许月萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学水文与水资源研究所,浙江杭州310058 [2]上海市水利工程设计研究院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2011年第1期69-73,81,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50809058);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(Z5080048);教育部博士点新教师基金项目(200803351029)

摘　　要：为了加强杭州市的旱涝灾害监测和评估,利用5个气象站近50年的月降水资料,比较分析了Z指数和SPI计算结果的一致性与差异。采用频率分析、趋势变化特征分析和多尺度SPI分析等方法,研究了杭州市各站及各季旱涝的变化特征。研究表明:Z指数和SPI在计算杭州市旱涝情况结果基本一致;杭州市的干旱情况自西向东逐渐加重,洪涝反之;夏季与秋季易引起梅汛、台风洪涝和干旱交替出现。首次使用多时间尺度SPI计算杭州市的旱涝情况,为今后杭州市旱涝预测提供了一定的参考价值。In order to strengthen the monitoring and assessment of droughts as well as the flood in Hangzhou,this paper analyzes the conformability and difference between the calculated Z index and SPI,with the aid of the data collected from 5 meteorological stations.By employing such methods as frequency analysis,trend analysis and multi-scale SPI,this paper investigates the seasonal change characteristics of droughts and floods.By means of the research we find that results calculated by Z index are basically the same as those by SPI.The droughts in Hangzhou are becoming more serious from the west to the east,but the flood is the opposite.Meanwhile the plum flood,typhoon-induced floods and droughts often occur in summer and fall.The application of multi-scale Z index in this paper serves as a predication of the droughts and floods in Hangzhou in the near future.

关 键 词：Z指数 SPI 多时间尺度SPI 频率分析 趋势分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]