户籍制度改革对中国农村劳动力流动的影响  

The Effect on Rural Labor Mobility from Registration System Reform in China

作　　者：孙文凯[1] 白重恩[2] 谢沛初[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,100872 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2011年第1期28-41,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金(10CJL030);国家杰出青年基金(70625002)资助

摘　　要：户籍制度曾经是我国劳动力流动的巨大障碍,近年对其进行的改革促进了大量永久移民的形成,这是得到公认的。但是,户籍制度改革对短期劳动力流动的影响则缺乏研究,而这也是城市化进程的重要部分。在1998年中央政府明确了严格控制大城市规模、合理发展中等城市和小城市的改革目标后,户籍制度改革是否起到了引导农村劳动力流动的作用从而为实现这一目标做出贡献,则需要用数据分析。本文对2003—2006年期间发生的大中城市户籍制度改革的效果进行检验,通过双差回归方法在户改对农村劳动力流动总量以及向大中城市而不是省会等特大城市流动的效应方面进行定量研究,发现在此期间,很少有证据显示户籍制度改革对短期劳动力流动产生了显著影响,这意味着当前的户籍制度改革在引导农民工流动方面的作用有限。另外,社会网络、农村收入增加都对农民工外出务工有显著影响。China＇ s registration system has been the biggest obstacle to labor mobility. It is widely believed that reform for the system induced a great lot of permanent migration in recent years. However, there were few studies for the reform＇ s effect on rui-al workers mobility which is also an important part of urbanization. After the central government definitely made the objects of registration system reform clear as strictly control the scale of mega-eities and rational develop medium-sized cities and small cities in 1998, a new question raised： is the system reform effective for re-distribute farmer workers？ This paper mainly discussed the effect by medium-sized city household registration reform during 2003--2006. The quantitative effect on farmer worker mobility acted by registration system reform was studied by using Difference in Difference regression with micro control variables. It found that there is little evidence for the significant effects of registration reform on farmer workers mobility. In addition, social network and increasing farming income have significant effects on farmer workers out of village.

关 键 词：户籍制度改革 劳动力流动 双差法 

分 类 号：D631.42[政治法律—政治学]