矿产资源需求驱动因素及全球矿业走势分析  

The analysis on demand driving elements of the mineral resources and global trend for the mining industry

作　　者：陈其慎[1,2] 王安建[2] 王高尚[2] 李建武[2] 彭颖[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2011年第1期6-9,22,共5页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所项目(K1007);地质调查项目(编号:N0702);国家开发银行项目(编号E0811)

摘　　要：本文深入分析了不同经济发展阶段(农业时代、工业化时代和后工业化时代)矿产资源需求的驱动因素;总结了百年来全球矿业的四个发展阶段;讨论了全球矿业格局的演变;结合未来25年全球矿产资源需求趋势,判断了全球矿业的未来走势。研究认为,未来20年,亚洲将成为全球矿产资源需求中心,以中国为代表的正处于工业化的国家与以印度为代表的新一轮工业化国家的矿产资源高需求期将出现叠加,这将进一步加剧全球矿产资源需求竞争。未来20年,我国矿产资源需求仍将保持在较高水平。我国应把握住未来10年的全球矿业机遇期,充分利用国外矿产资源,加速完成工业化。This paper analyzes the driving elements of the mineral resources demand in depth,from differing stages of the economic development（transit from agricultural,industrialized to post-industrialized era）.It concludes,moreover,that the four development phases for global mineral industry,upon which the structural transition for it has been discussed.In the light of the demand forecast for the global mineral resources in the following 25 years,it sheds light on the trend for the global mining industry.According to the findings,in the next 20 years,it is expected that Asia will take the role as the global demanding centre for the mineral resources.Under such circumstances,there will be a peak period during which the demand for the mineral resources will sharply soar to unprecedented heights,form both the incumbents among the ongoing industrialized countries such as China and the new emerging industrialized countries represented as India.As a result,the competition in the mineral resources demand will further be intensified on the global scale.For the 25 years afterwards,the mineral resources demand from China will be kept at a relatively great level.Therefore,in the next coming 10 years,China should jump on the bandwagon during the golden development age for global mining industry and fully take advantage of the overseas mineral resources,so as to accelerate the completion for China＇s industrialization.

关 键 词：矿产资源需求 驱动因素 全球矿业 走势 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]