中国煤炭消费与经济发展水平之间关系的协整分析  

Co-integration analysis of coal consumption and economic development in China

作　　者：薛黎明[1] 侯运炳[1] 蔡先锋[1] 何广[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2011年第1期31-35,共5页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(项目编号:中国矿业大学(北京)2009QZ08)

摘　　要：本文应用协整原理,对我国煤炭消费与经济发展水平之间的关系进行了协整分析与因果关系检验。结果表明存在着从经济增长到煤炭消费的单向因果关系,这表明,当经济总量扩大时,会导致对煤炭消费需求的增加。对这一结果的深层含义进行了分析,并提出了煤炭工业要健康发展必须实现煤炭清洁利用、加大煤炭产业的科技投入、煤炭开采过程中要践行科学开采等建议,以保障我国经济发展的能源供给。The co-integration relation analysis and causality test on the coal consumption and economic growth in China is made according to co-integration theory.The result shows that the coal consumption and economic growth in China have a long-run equilibrium relation and a unidirectional causality from GDP to coal consumption which indicates that economic growth can accelerate the demand of the coal.The paper made a further analysis of the result and put forward the suggestion of the sustainable development of the coal industry as follows： coal should be clean used,scientific funds should be given to coal industry and sustainable mining should be implemented in coal mining.

关 键 词：煤炭消费 GDP 协整 因果关系 

分 类 号：F407.21[经济管理—产业经济]